Prediction Accuracy
Live tracking since 2026-05-25 · Backtest baseline: 52.8% (2025 season, 2,525 games)
All-Time Record
917–718
1635 games tracked
All-Time Accuracy
56.1%
vs 52.8% baseline +3.3%
Last 7 Days
78.6%
11–3 (14 games)
Last 30 Days
62.0%
199–122 (321 games)
By Confidence Band
| Band | Record | Accuracy | vs Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65+% | 250–172 | 59.2% | +6.4% |
| 60-65% | 162–125 | 56.4% | +3.6% |
| 55-60% | 240–184 | 56.6% | +3.8% |
| 50-55% | 265–237 | 52.8% | +0.0% |
Daily Trend (last 30 days)
| Date | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 11–3 | 78.6% |
| 2026-09-26 | 8–5 | 61.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | 11–6 | 64.7% |
| 2026-09-24 | 8–4 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-23 | 8–8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-09-22 | 6–9 | 40.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | 2–1 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-20 | 10–5 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-19 | 10–5 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-18 | 12–3 | 80.0% |
| 2026-09-17 | 7–2 | 77.8% |
| 2026-09-16 | 10–5 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-15 | 7–8 | 46.7% |
| 2026-09-14 | 7–3 | 70.0% |
| 2026-09-13 | 8–7 | 53.3% |
| 2026-09-12 | 8–7 | 53.3% |
| 2026-09-11 | 9–6 | 60.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | 3–2 | 60.0% |
| 2026-09-09 | 10–5 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-08 | 9–6 | 60.0% |
| 2026-09-07 | 8–3 | 72.7% |
| 2026-09-06 | 8–7 | 53.3% |
| 2026-09-05 | 8–7 | 53.3% |
| 2026-09-04 | 11–5 | 68.8% |
Backtest baseline 52.8% was re-measured against the full 2025 MLB regular season (2,525 games) across several random seeds; an earlier figure of 54.8% could not be reproduced.